The Weekly Fill-Up | July 14-18

July 14, 2025

Energy markets ended the week on a higher note as a combination of geopolitical instability and tightening supply continues to push petroleum futures upward. With the August 1 tariff deadline approaching and renewed tensions in the Red Sea—where Houthi forces attacked and sank two ships—risk premiums spiked, causing crude and diesel contracts to rise week-over-week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a week-over-week increase of $1.57, while diesel climbed $0.09, reflecting ongoing concerns about domestic inventory shortages. U.S. stockpiles have now fallen to levels not seen in two decades, adding pressure to already tight markets and prompting buyers to secure supply ahead of potential price jumps. (Source: CME Group)

Further fueling market strength, the latest rig count from Baker Hughes revealed another decline, marking the 11th straight week of drops. The U.S. is currently operating 54 fewer oil rigs than this time last year. Even so, domestic crude production has shown resilience, averaging 13.458 million barrels per day over the last four weeks—up 2.5% from a year ago. Natural gas rigs held steady this week but remain down year-over-year. (Source: Baker Hughes, EIA)

On the refined fuels side, wholesale cash prices were mixed across major U.S. regions. Gulf Coast and Group 3 regions saw moderate increases in gasoline and diesel cash prices, while the Chicago market experienced a more volatile week, with gasoline values slipping and diesel ticking higher. These shifts reflect ongoing supply chain adjustments, refinery output variability, and localized demand patterns across the Midwest and Plains states.

Looking ahead, the market calendar is light early in the week, with no major economic data set for Monday. However, President Trump is reportedly preparing a “major” announcement regarding Russia, which could inject volatility into global markets. On Tuesday, attention will turn to key inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey—two releases that could further influence fuel demand outlooks and broader economic sentiment. (Source: Bloomberg)

As always, Sioux Valley Coop continues to monitor these developments to help our patrons navigate volatility. If you’re planning for upcoming farm, fleet, or personal fuel needs, now is a good time to touch base with our energy team.