The Weekly Fill-Up | July 6-10

July 6, 2026

The calendar has officially turned to the second half of the year, and fuel markets are beginning to tell a different story than they did during planting season. For Sioux Valley Coop patrons, July is an ideal time to step back and evaluate where the market stands—and what trends are likely to shape diesel and propane through harvest preparations later this summer.

One of the biggest developments entering July is the contrast between crude oil inventories and refined fuel inventories. Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that commercial crude oil inventories have continued to decline, largely because refineries have been operating at exceptionally high utilization rates to meet seasonal demand. At the same time, distillate inventories—which include diesel fuel—have started to rebuild after reaching historically tight levels earlier this year. While diesel stocks remain below the five-year average, the recent increase is an encouraging sign that supply conditions are improving.

Another trend worth watching is refinery utilization. U.S. refineries are currently running at some of the highest operating rates seen this year as they work to supply both domestic consumers and export markets. High refinery throughput generally supports stable fuel availability, but it also leaves less room for unexpected disruptions. If a major refinery experiences an outage during peak summer operations, markets could respond quickly because facilities are already operating near capacity.

For agriculture, the nature of diesel demand is evolving. Unlike April and May, when fuel usage was concentrated around planting, July demand is more evenly distributed. Spraying, irrigation, hay production, grain hauling, livestock operations, and construction projects all contribute to a steady draw on diesel supplies. Rather than seeing sharp spikes in consumption, suppliers are experiencing a more consistent flow of demand across multiple industries. That steady demand helps support stable markets but also reinforces the importance of maintaining adequate inventory throughout the summer.

Propane continues to follow its seasonal pattern. With heating demand at its annual low, suppliers across the country are focused on rebuilding storage inventories before fall. Current inventory trends remain favorable, and strong production has helped offset healthy export demand. This puts the propane market in a solid position entering the second half of the year, giving suppliers time to prepare for winter before seasonal demand returns.

Looking ahead, market attention is beginning to shift toward late-summer weather. Extended periods of heat can influence diesel consumption through increased irrigation, higher transportation activity, and greater demand for electrical generation. At the same time, hurricane season remains an important wildcard because Gulf Coast refineries play such a significant role in producing the fuels used throughout the Midwest. Even if storms never directly affect South Dakota, refinery disruptions elsewhere can influence wholesale fuel markets nationwide.

The first half of 2026 demonstrated just how interconnected today’s fuel markets have become. Global events, domestic refinery operations, export demand, and regional agricultural activity all worked together to shape pricing and availability. As July begins, the outlook is generally positive. Diesel inventories are improving, propane supplies remain healthy, and refineries continue operating at strong levels. Even so, maintaining a proactive approach to fuel planning remains one of the best ways for Sioux Valley Coop patrons to navigate whatever the second half of the year may bring.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
U.S. Energy Information Administration – Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration – This Week in Petroleum
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report