The Weekly Fill-Up | September 22-26

September 22, 2025

Energy markets are once again showing signs of push and pull as September winds down. Oil prices slipped despite a modest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, as traders weighed robust supply and rising inventories against any potential boost in demand. Brent crude eased to around $66.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled near $62.68 per barrel, reflecting a market that continues to wrestle with oversupply.

In eastern and northeastern South Dakota, diesel demand is elevated as harvest activity ramps up. Nationally, distillate inventories have increased, which helps temper sharp price jumps, but costs remain higher than this time last year. Diesel’s role in agriculture and freight keeps it under close watch, while gasoline prices have held steadier. With post-summer travel winding down, retail gasoline across the Midwest is hovering near $3 per gallon, providing some relief compared to diesel’s upward pull.

Propane markets remain in a stable holding pattern. Inventories are building nationally and are close to where they were a year ago, signaling a healthy supply cushion heading into winter. That said, margins are thin: any colder-than-normal start to the season or unexpected supply disruption could add pressure quickly. For co-op members across our region, this is a prime time to evaluate prebuy or budget contracts before demand heats up.

Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) continues to reflect tight global urea markets and strong diesel consumption during harvest. While week-to-week updates are less visible, the overall picture suggests costs will remain firm. For local farm operations and fleets, planning DEF supply in advance remains the best safeguard against supply chain pinch points.

Looking forward, forecasts still point toward easing crude oil prices through late 2025 into 2026 as production from OPEC+ increases and global inventories rise. Current projections show Brent averaging about $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2025, with additional declines possible into next year.

Sources

Reuters – Oil prices slip as robust supply outweighs Fed cut (Sept 2025)
Reuters – Oil gains as tension flares in Europe, Middle East (Sept 2025)
U.S. Energy Information Administration – This Week in Petroleum / Propane Stocks Data
LPGas Magazine – Why Propane Prices Are Lower This Year
RBN Energy – Propane Inventory & Demand Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration – Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)