The Weekly Fill-Up | March 9-13

March 9, 2026

The second week of March has brought significant global developments that are beginning to ripple through fuel markets across the United States. While Sioux Valley Coop patrons may not immediately see dramatic price changes at the pump or bulk tank, the events unfolding overseas could influence diesel and fuel pricing as we move closer to spring fieldwork.

The most notable development affecting fuel markets this week is escalating conflict in the Middle East. Global oil prices surged after tensions involving Iran disrupted supply routes and energy infrastructure. Brent crude briefly climbed above $100 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude followed a similar path. The concern is not just about production itself, but about transportation routes—particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel through which a large share of the world’s oil supply moves. Any disruption there quickly raises uncertainty in global fuel markets.

Why this matters locally is because crude oil prices remain the foundation of diesel and gasoline pricing. Even though the United States produces a large share of its own oil, global market shocks still influence domestic fuel costs. When crude prices rise quickly, diesel markets often respond even more aggressively because diesel inventories tend to run tighter and refining capacity is limited. Analysts noted this week that diesel futures have been especially sensitive to the Middle East conflict due to already tight supply conditions worldwide.

For Sioux Valley Coop patrons preparing for spring work, this means diesel markets could become more volatile than they were earlier this winter. The timing is important: March is when agricultural diesel demand typically begins to increase across the Midwest as equipment maintenance, hauling, and early field preparation ramp up. Even modest shifts in global crude prices can push diesel rack prices upward during this seasonal transition.

Propane markets, however, are telling a slightly different story. The Midwest entered the heating season with strong inventory levels, and current data shows propane stocks in the region still sitting above the five-year average. That healthy supply cushion has helped keep propane markets relatively stable despite global oil volatility.

For local operations, this means propane availability remains reliable as winter heating demand tapers off. Many rural operations—livestock buildings, shops, and homes—continue to draw propane through March, but the supply picture suggests there is no immediate shortage risk. Instead, the focus is shifting toward how quickly inventories begin to decline once agricultural uses increase later in the spring.

Another factor worth watching this week is refinery activity. Early spring is a common time for refinery maintenance across the United States as facilities prepare for summer fuel blends. When refineries temporarily reduce output during maintenance periods, diesel supply margins can tighten slightly. Combined with global crude price uncertainty, this can create modest upward pressure in diesel markets even if local demand has not fully ramped up yet.

For Sioux Valley Coop patrons, the key takeaway this week is awareness. Global events are introducing new volatility into crude oil markets, which can flow through to diesel pricing just as spring activity begins. At the same time, propane markets remain well supplied heading toward the end of winter. Using this period to review diesel supply plans, confirm storage capacity, and stay ahead of seasonal demand will help maintain stability as markets respond to both global developments and the upcoming agricultural season.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
EIA Propane Market Update and Midwest inventory data
Reuters and global market reports on diesel futures and supply conditions
Global oil market developments tied to Middle East conflict