The Weekly Fill-Up | March 16-20

March 16, 2026

Mid-March brings a noticeable shift in fuel dynamics across South Dakota. While winter heating demand continues to taper, preparations for spring fieldwork are beginning to influence diesel demand across the Midwest. For Sioux Valley Coop patrons, this week highlights how global energy developments and domestic refining trends are intersecting at a key moment in the seasonal cycle.

One of the biggest developments shaping fuel markets this week is ongoing volatility in global crude oil prices. Recent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have kept crude markets on edge, with traders watching closely for any supply disruptions. Even when those disruptions occur thousands of miles away, they can influence the price of crude oil that U.S. refineries purchase. Because diesel fuel pricing is closely tied to crude costs, upward pressure in global oil markets can gradually filter down to diesel rack prices across the Midwest.

At the same time, U.S. refineries are entering the heart of their seasonal maintenance window. Many refineries temporarily reduce output in March and April while transitioning equipment and adjusting production for summer gasoline blends. During these maintenance periods, distillate production—including diesel—can tighten slightly. When refinery output dips at the same time agricultural demand begins to increase, regional diesel markets can experience subtle price firming.

Across South Dakota, the early stages of spring preparation are beginning to influence fuel demand. Equipment inspections, pre-season hauling, and early field preparation gradually increase diesel consumption. While this demand is not yet at peak planting levels, it is enough to shift purchasing behavior as operations begin to position for the weeks ahead. For Sioux Valley Coop members, this is often the period when topping off storage and confirming delivery schedules can help smooth out demand spikes later in the season.

Propane markets continue to move in the opposite direction as winter heating demand declines. National propane inventories remain healthy after a relatively moderate winter across much of the Midwest. With warmer temperatures gradually reducing residential heating consumption, propane supply has remained stable. For agricultural operations that rely on propane for livestock facilities or rural buildings, this creates a window of consistent availability as winter usage winds down.

Another factor worth watching this week is transportation logistics. As snow and extreme cold become less common, fuel deliveries across rural areas typically move more efficiently. Improved road conditions help stabilize supply chains and allow distributors like Sioux Valley Coop to maintain reliable delivery schedules. That stability becomes particularly important as diesel demand increases heading into planting season.

The key takeaway for the week of March 16 is that fuel markets are entering a transitional phase. Global oil price uncertainty and refinery maintenance are tightening diesel fundamentals just as agricultural demand begins to rise. Meanwhile, propane markets remain well supplied as winter fades. For Sioux Valley Coop patrons, using this time to monitor diesel purchasing plans and review propane storage levels can help ensure a smooth transition from winter operations into the busy spring season.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
EIA Distillate Fuel Supply and Refinery Utilization Data
EIA Propane Inventory and Market Update
Midwest diesel price trend data (YCharts)